President Yoweri Museveni no longer relies on support from the Buganda Kingdom to maintain his grip on power, according to political analyst Daniel Kalinaki. His remarks have stirred conversation nationwide, especially after Museveni’s allies received a cold reception during Kabaka Mutebi II’s anniversary celebrations—a clear sign of rising tension between Buganda and the ruling government.
Kalinaki argues that Museveni’s continued rule is not based on popularity or regional backing, but on his control over key state mechanisms. These include the military, intelligence services, government finances, and vital public institutions. With these powerful tools in hand, Kalinaki believes Museveni can lead the country without needing Buganda’s electoral support. “Museveni’s hold on the state is so firm that he can afford to bypass Buganda politically and still govern effectively,” he noted.
Historically, Buganda played a vital role in Museveni’s political journey. However, the region—particularly its youth—has become a vocal supporter of the opposition National Unity Platform (NUP), led by Robert Kyagulanyi (Bobi Wine). Public events have seen Museveni’s allies jeered and speeches interrupted, highlighting a dramatic shift in loyalty.
Rather than attempting to rebuild strained ties, Kalinaki suggests Museveni might deliberately allow the friction to simmer quietly. This strategy, analysts say, helps him avoid open conflict while still keeping a level of administrative engagement with Buganda. Some have described it as “keeping the engine running while ignoring the squeaky wheel”—a way to maintain control without directly addressing dissent.
Ultimately, Kalinaki’s analysis paints a picture of a president whose authority is rooted less in voter approval and more in institutional dominance. Whether Buganda supports him or not, Museveni appears well-positioned to retain power on his own terms.
